The media is missing the big story from Tuesday’s elections

The immediate post-election story has focused on the continued Republican problems in the suburbs. But there’s another part of the story that is good news for the GOP, a part that shows our continuing realignment moves in two directions. That story is the ongoing movement of formerly Democratic regions and […] Read more »

The 7 Ways Impeachment Could Shape The 2020 Election

It’s November. That means your seasonal depression is settling in for the long haul, the 2020 election is a year away, and the Congressional Democrats are taking the impeachment inquiry into its next, very public phase. This week, some transcripts of formerly closed-door testimony were made public, and televised hearings […] Read more »

Republicans Claim Trump Closed a 17-Point Gap in Kentucky. That’s Not Quite What Happened.

It seemed in many ways like nothing new: another high-ranking Republican official offering a dubious assertion about the potent political powers of President Trump. But a claim from the chairwoman of the Republican National Committee, Ronna McDaniel — that Mr. Trump helped lift Gov. Matt Bevin of Kentucky from a […] Read more »

Nonvoters Are a Source of Hope for Democrats. But Maybe a False Hope.

… For Democrats, nonvoters have long been a source of hope. They are disproportionately young, nonwhite and low-income, demographics that favor the party. In this year’s Democratic primary, turning nonvoters into voters would seem to offer a path to victory for candidates who might seek to win the general election […] Read more »

Election 2019: Another Win for Democrats in Virginia Pushes State Further off the Competitive Map

Key Points • Virginia moves from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic in our Electoral College ratings in the wake of a fourth straight November that has broken in the Democrats’ favor. • Gov. Matt Bevin’s (R) apparent loss in Kentucky is more of a personal repudiation of him than a […] Read more »