It’s morning again in America for the GOP, or at least in California today. The hard-fought special election for the state’s 25th District ended Wednesday when Democrat Christy Smith conceded the race to Republican Mike Garcia. Republicans have managed to flip a blue seat in California for the first time […] Read more »
Why 2020’s Third Party Share Should Be Lower Than 2016
Key Points• Despite — or perhaps because of — the relatively high share of the vote third party candidates received in 2016, we expect the two major parties to have a better showing in 2020.• Voters generally feel better about their major party nominees this year than they did in […] Read more »
Geography and gerrymander
… In 1960, John F. Kennedy won the national popular vote by less than two-tenths of a percentage point, while winning some 1,155 of the nation’s 3,143 counties. In 2012, Barack Obama won the popular vote by 4 points but took just 705 counties. Four years ago, Hillary Clinton won […] Read more »
CNN Poll: Biden tops Trump nationwide, but battlegrounds tilt Trump
Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s lead over President Donald Trump now stands at five points, but Trump has an edge in the critical battleground states that could decide the electoral college, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS. In the new poll, 51% of registered voters nationwide back […] Read more »
Many governors win bipartisan support for handling of pandemic, but some Republicans face blowback over reopening efforts
Governors collectively have been winning widespread praise from the public for their handling of the coronavirus pandemic, often with the kind of bipartisan approval that has eluded President Trump. But a large-scale Washington Post-Ipsos poll finds that some Republican governors who have embraced reopening their states are struggling to achieve […] Read more »
Will 2020 be the year the RNC’s ‘autopsy’ was right?
At least once a year, I look back at the March 2013 Republican National Committee’s “Growth & Opportunity Project,” the party’s post-2012 “autopsy” examining why Republicans were falling behind in their battle against the Democrats. “Falling behind?” you might ask, after seeing the GOP sweeps of 2014 and 2016 and […] Read more »