… In the gauzy, “West Wing” TV version of politics, campaigns are won with compelling speeches, dazzling debate performances and perfectly crafted campaign ads. In reality, campaigns are won on grit, endurance and attention to detail. And luck. To win the nomination for president, a campaign must be able to […] Read more »
Will It Matter If Republican Leadership Unites Against Trump?
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Well-placed Republican insiders are mobilizing to block Donald Trump from winning the GOP presidential nomination. … Trump’s march to the 2016 GOP nomination represents the most explicit recent exception to the “party decides” theory. Trump amassed almost none of the assets that […] Read more »
Republicans Retain Edge in Electoral College Tie
Key Points• If no candidate receives a majority of Electoral College votes, the U.S. House of Representatives elected in the 2024 election would decide the presidency.• Republicans are very likely to continue to control enough House delegations to select the GOP nominee as the winner, meaning that 269 is effectively […] Read more »
The three Republican factions: Non-cons, normie-cons, and disaffected leaners
The current moment in the Republican Party is summed up well by a quote from Teresa Cosby, a Furman University political science professor, on former governor (and current GOP presidential candidate) Nikki Haley’s role in removing the Confederate flag from South Carolina Capitol grounds: “It’s just going to score her […] Read more »
2024 poll: DeSantis slides as Trump surges to first head-to-head lead in months
A new Yahoo News/YouGov poll shows that after trailing for the last three months, former President Donald Trump has suddenly surged to a substantial lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in a two-man matchup for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination. Previously, DeSantis led Trump 45% to 41% among Republican voters. […] Read more »
Democrats have been doing well in special elections in 2023
Democrat Jennifer McClellan easily won the special election for Virginia’s 4th Congressional District last week. The fact that a Democrat comfortably retained a Democratic seat in a district President Joe Biden would have won under its new lines by 36 points in 2020 is not surprising. What is notable is […] Read more »