After the 2016 election, when Hillary Clinton lost White voters by 15 points, it seemed as if Democrats might need to accept their losses and rely more on minority voters for their next majority. But the opposite has happened. In recent polls, Joe Biden has held President Trump to a […] Read more »
Democrats Won’t Cede the Streets This Time
During the long legal battle in Florida that ultimately determined the 2000 presidential election, Al Gore, the Democratic nominee, specifically discouraged Jesse Jackson, the veteran civil-rights leader, from organizing public protests to demand a full counting of the disputed ballots. Gore wanted to fight solely in the courts, though that […] Read more »
Joe Biden might win in a landslide. That would make things more complicated.
For weeks, the mantra of the data nerd has been that President Trump can still win reelection. The Democratic nightmare scenario — Trump loses the popular vote but again wins the electoral college — is very much still on the table. But the same statistical models that show a path […] Read more »
Trump’s small convention bump could salvage GOP Senate hopes
With less than two months to go until the election—and with the critical battleground of North Carolina already sending out mail-in ballots—it’s worth taking stock of where things stand. Based on the slew of post-convention polls and conversations with Republican and Democratic strategists, there’s a consensus that the president received […] Read more »
Democrats Made Gains From Multiple Sources in 2018 Midterm Victories
Compared with Hillary Clinton’s 2-point popular vote advantage over Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election, the Democratic Party expanded its margin over the Republican Party to 9 points in votes cast for the U.S. House of Representatives in 2018, a gain of 7 percentage points. This increased support was […] Read more »
How Biden is pressing a two-front war against Trump
Joe Biden has described himself as a “bridge” between the Democrats’ current and future generations of leaders. But he may also be a bridge between its present and future on the electoral map. Exactly eight weeks before Election Day, Biden has strong opportunities to recapture states that President Donald Trump […] Read more »