The biggest miscalculation Republicans made throughout the Trump era is conflating the president’s base of hard-core supporters with the larger swath of Trump sympathizers, who share the president’s populist instincts but always held reservations about his temperament. They’re middle-class voters who have been turned off by the Democratic Party’s elitist […] Read more »
Why the Southeast is up for grabs in the 2020 election
… Apart from Virginia, which now shades reliably blue, Republicans still hold the upper hand in the states across the Southeast. But while the GOP advantage remains lopsided in the Deep South states of Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and Arkansas, Democrats this year are showing clear signs of revival in North […] Read more »
Voter Turnout Appears Steady; Enthusiasm Running High
Americans’ attentiveness to the presidential election continues to increase as the campaign enters its final month. Seventy-four percent of U.S. adults now say they are giving the election “quite a lot” of thought. … Enthusiasm about voting has increased substantially among both major party groups since 2016, with 80% of […] Read more »
The Political Implications of D.C./Puerto Rico Statehood
Key Points• In the upcoming 2020 elections, if Joe Biden defeats Donald Trump, and if the Democrats win control of the Senate and maintain control of the U.S. House, statehood for the District of Columbia and for Puerto Rico is a real possibility.• On June 26, 2020, the U.S. House […] Read more »
New Senate map shows Republicans are increasingly vulnerable
Amid the constant political chaos of 2020, there have been a few consistencies. One of them has been a growing Democratic advantage in this fall’s congressional races, particularly the Senate. For Democrats, the potential for pickups is growing and affecting some places where a tight general election race is not […] Read more »
Mail-In Voter Fraud: Anatomy of a Disinformation Campaign
The claim that election fraud is a major concern with mail-in ballots has become the central threat to election participation during the Covid-19 pandemic and to the legitimacy of the outcome of the election across the political spectrum. President Trump has repeatedly cited his concerns over voter fraud associated with […] Read more »