As Democratic leaders consider why Joe Biden failed to attract more Hispanic support in this election, they might consider a key datapoint: Hispanic Christians, especially Catholics and evangelical Protestants, have drifted increasingly toward the Republican Party in recent years. Between 2018 and 2020, the share of Hispanic Catholics who approved […] Read more »
Post-Election National Survey
Public Opinion Strategies completed N=1600 interviews last night with 2020 voters. There is a lot more to learn and say about this election, but, here are five initial key takeaways from this work: CONT. Public Opinion Strategies The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and […] Read more »
House Republicans Defy the Polls, Narrow Democrats’ Majority
District-level polling has rarely led us — or the parties and groups investing in House races — so astray. Prior to Tuesday, most Republican strategists were privately resigned to the prospect of a double-digit loss of seats. At this writing, Republicans may be on track to pick up between five […] Read more »
12 contests to watch closely on Tuesday night
It’s Election Day in America, and there are actually 56 separate presidential elections taking place: The 50 states, Washington, DC, and individual congressional districts in Maine and Nebraska. So what should you be on the lookout for to know who is winning the election? Here is what I will be […] Read more »
Who wins the Senate? Watch the presidential race
Senate races across the country are converging with the trend in the presidential race in that same state, underscoring the increasingly parliamentary nature of American elections. In 2016, for the first time since the direct election of all senators began in 1914, every Senate race finished the same way as […] Read more »
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Final Ratings for the 2020 Election
Key Points• Our final Electoral College ratings show Joe Biden at 321 electoral votes and Donald Trump at 217.• Democrats are narrow favorites to capture a Senate majority, 50-48 with two Toss-ups — the two Georgia races, both of which we think are likely to go to runoffs.• We have […] Read more »