After Trump indictment, most see security risk, but Republicans see politics

Republican primary voters say they’re far more concerned that Donald Trump’s indictment is politically motivated than his alleged conduct being a national security risk – and there’s no evidence it’s hurt his status as the clear front-runner for the 2024 nomination, at least not yet. He remains well ahead of […] Read more »

The Emerging Anti-MAGA Majority

In 2016, Trump shocked the world by tearing down the “Blue Wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Quickly, a new consensus congealed around the idea that despite having lost the national popular vote, and only barely having won the Electoral College, Trump had improved Republicans’ fortunes for the foreseeable […] Read more »

How one DeSantis speech captured the dynamic that could decide 2024

When Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis delivered his initial speech as a declared presidential candidate in Iowa last week, his first 15 minutes succinctly previewed how Republicans might defeat President Joe Biden next year. The next 30 minutes of DeSantis’ speech then demonstrated how Biden might survive despite all the doubts […] Read more »

How strong is Trump? He’s beating Republican rivals in their home states

… In recent years, national polling leaders at this point in the primary season who would go on to lose their party nominations did so in part because they lost the Iowa caucuses. That happened to the two candidates with the largest national leads: Republican Rudy Giuliani and Democrat Hillary […] Read more »