Republican primary voters say they’re far more concerned that Donald Trump’s indictment is politically motivated than his alleged conduct being a national security risk – and there’s no evidence it’s hurt his status as the clear front-runner for the 2024 nomination, at least not yet. He remains well ahead of […] Read more »
The Emerging Anti-MAGA Majority
In 2016, Trump shocked the world by tearing down the “Blue Wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Quickly, a new consensus congealed around the idea that despite having lost the national popular vote, and only barely having won the Electoral College, Trump had improved Republicans’ fortunes for the foreseeable […] Read more »
Is Gen Z Coming for the GOP?
Gen Z is poised to massively expand its influence in the 2024 election. But its impact may be more complex than typically assumed. As many as 7 million to 9 million more members of the racially and culturally diverse Gen Z could cast ballots in 2024 than did in 2020, […] Read more »
Extremism is more bipartisan than Democrats want to believe
It’s obvious to us Democrats that the GOP is the party of extremists and extremism. … Republicans want to outlaw abortion; they’re willing to default on government debts already incurred; they believe children should be able to buy weapons of war; they reject efforts to combat the climate crisis. For […] Read more »
How one DeSantis speech captured the dynamic that could decide 2024
When Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis delivered his initial speech as a declared presidential candidate in Iowa last week, his first 15 minutes succinctly previewed how Republicans might defeat President Joe Biden next year. The next 30 minutes of DeSantis’ speech then demonstrated how Biden might survive despite all the doubts […] Read more »
How strong is Trump? He’s beating Republican rivals in their home states
… In recent years, national polling leaders at this point in the primary season who would go on to lose their party nominations did so in part because they lost the Iowa caucuses. That happened to the two candidates with the largest national leads: Republican Rudy Giuliani and Democrat Hillary […] Read more »