… The findings below indicate that between 1972 and 2010, there was only a very slight overall partisan bias toward Democrats in redistricting. Toward the start of this period, Democrats had a large advantage, but by the 1990s it had become relatively small. Since 2002, the partisan bias in redistricting […] Read more »
Geography, Not Voting Rights Act, Accounts for Most Majority-Minority Districts
The Supreme Court’s decision on the Voting Rights Act on Tuesday — which struck down one provision of the law outright, neutered another and set a precedent that could eventually threaten the rest of the legislation — may reduce the pressure on states to create majority-minority districts when they engage […] Read more »
Republicans Foil What Majority Wants by Gerrymandering
… Democrats fell 17 seats short of winning a House majority in 2012, even as their congressional candidates drew about 1.4 million more votes than Republicans nationwide, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News. … The election results mean House Republicans will have the power to block or demand amendments […] Read more »
Redistricting didn’t win Republicans the House
There have been a lot of claims recently about the impact of redistricting on the 2012 congressional elections. Progressives are alarmed that Democrats won a majority of the House vote—roughly 51%—while falling a full 17 seats short of a majority. Such a discrepancy between the winner by votes and the […] Read more »
Gerrymandering is not what’s wrong with American politics
… The most important influence on how members of Congress vote is not their constituents, but their party. This makes them out-of-step not only with the average American — the “broad-based public opinion” that Obama mentioned — but also, and ironically, with even their base. Members are more partisan than […] Read more »
The Great Gerrymander of 2012
Having the first modern democracy comes with bugs. Normally we would expect more seats in Congress to go to the political party that receives more votes, but the last election confounded expectations. … Using statistical tools that are common in fields like my own, neuroscience, I have found strong evidence […] Read more »