If you care about whether the Democratic Party can rebuild itself anytime soon out of the smoking wreckage left behind by the disastrous 2016 elections, something very important is happening a lot sooner than you think. There are more than three dozen gubernatorial races taking place in the next two […] Read more »
Yes, the House is in Play
All year, we have been skeptical of a return to the majority for US House Democrats, which remains the case. But there is a dim light flickering at the end of the tunnel. The cratering of support for Donald Trump among white college-educated women and, to some extent, men with […] Read more »
The Political Process Isn’t Rigged — It Has Much Bigger Problems
… Washington is rigged, but not in a literal sense and not in any of the nefarious ways those loud voices are contending. Instead, the blame may lie more with voters than politicians: Our legislative process is not designed to withstand the current levels of partisan polarization in the electorate. […] Read more »
Are the voters really mad as hell?
… If there’s a new “silent majority” in the nation, they are not tea party activists or Millennials feeling the “Bern.” They are the tens of millions of Americans who are not angry, but remaining silent. In Iowa this year — despite all the buildup, the TV commercials and the […] Read more »
Gerrymandering Widens Gap Between Popular Vote and Control of Congress
Gerrymandering is an oft-cited reason for voter dissatisfaction and the lack of competitive congressional elections. There is validity to this complaint, as the disparity between the national popular vote for congressional candidates and the resulting seat distribution has become historically large due to redistricting. Simply stated, those who are elected […] Read more »
Growing Urban-Rural Split Provides Republicans With Down-Ballot Advantages
The 2012 election provided two powerful reminders about the electoral implications of overly-concentrated Democratic voters. First, the Republicans held their U.S. House majority, won in 2010, despite the fact that the Democratic candidates in the 435 House districts received more votes than their Republican opponents. Second, these House results were […] Read more »