Let’s say you’re a Republican who is looking with abject terror at the thought of a Donald Trump nomination. You look at poll numbers from upcoming states—Trump by six! Trump by eight! You read and hear about “vectors” and “glide paths”, and you start looking for reassurance that it’s still […] Read more »
Presidential job approval ratings from Ike to Obama
Perhaps no measure better captures the public’s sentiment toward the president than job approval. … We looked at Pew Research Center data going back to Bill Clinton, and Gallup data going back to Dwight Eisenhower. These ratings reflect, for example, how views of presidents have become more politically polarized, as […] Read more »
The Eight Causes of Trumpism
… Both Trump and a broader phenomenon—call it Trumpism—are stronger and deeper than most veteran political analysts realized or were willing to acknowledge. They are neither immediate nor transitory phenomena. The disdain for the status quo, for authority figures of both parties and other institutions, and the anger at inexorable […] Read more »
Voters, Worried About Terrorism, Look for Leaders at Home on Silver Screen
… With the Islamic State suddenly rivaling the economy as their top concern in recent polls, many voters are looking for wartime strategies from the 2016 presidential candidates. But after seven years of a cerebral President Obama, there is no denying that some also want a leader who radiates gutsiness […] Read more »
Shocked at evangelicals’ flocking to Trump? Blame it on Reagan
Among the more bizarre developments of the campaign for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination is Donald Trump’s apparent popularity among evangelicals. Several polls show Trump garnering a plurality — though not a majority — of evangelical votes. Pundits, religious and otherwise, have been shaking their heads about this. Some evangelicals […] Read more »
The De-Reaganization of the Republican Party
… The dissonance between the Republican Party’s pious exaltation of Reagan the man and its break with much of his policy record is established enough that last year the Amazon show “Alpha House” built an episode around it, in which a Reagan impersonator shows up at a Republican retreat, recites […] Read more »