Since the photo-finish 2000 presidential election between George W. Bush and Al Gore that introduced the United States to the red-and-blue political map, the struggle between the parties for 270 Electoral College votes has resembled trench warfare. With most states locked down for one party or the other, both sides […] Read more »
The Demographic Paradox of the 2016 Election
For all the turmoil, turbulence, and sheer reality-show melodrama of the 2016 presidential campaign, the actual results appear more likely to deepen long-standing trends in the electorate than to shatter them. That’s been one of the paradoxes of this extraordinary election year. With both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton facing […] Read more »
Why the Election Is Close, and What Trump and Obama Have in Common
Donald J. Trump is in striking distance of winning the election with two days to go, and there’s really just one reason for that: He’s leading white voters without a college degree by a huge margin. In recent national surveys, Mr. Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 59 percent to 30 […] Read more »
Behind 2016’s Turmoil, a Crisis of White Identity
Call it the crisis of whiteness. White anxiety has fueled this year’s political tumult in the West: Britain’s surprising vote to exit the European Union, Donald J. Trump’s unexpected capture of the Republican presidential nomination in the United States, the rise of right-wing nationalism in Norway, Hungary, Austria and Greece. […] Read more »
As Election Nears, Voters Divided Over Democracy and ‘Respect’
As the presidential campaign enters its final days, opinions about American democracy and the candidates’ respect for democratic institutions – as well their respect for women, minorities and other groups in society– have emerged as political flashpoints. Donald Trump is widely seen as having little or no respect for Muslims, […] Read more »
Donald Trump and the rise of white identity in politics
Many political commentators credit Donald Trump’s rise to white voters’ antipathy toward racial and ethnic minorities. However, we believe this focus on racial resentment obscures another important aspect of racial thinking. In a study of white Americans’ attitudes and candidate preferences, we found that Trump’s success reflects the rise of […] Read more »