Trump’s coalition won the demographic battle. It’ll still lose the war.

Here’s one way to think about the 2016 election. We are witnessing a great race in this country between demographic and economic change that’s driving a new America, and reaction to those changes. On November 8, with a tremendous burst of speed, reaction to change caught up with change and […] Read more »

Trump and Brexit: why it’s again NOT the economy, stupid

For months, commentators have flocked to diagnose the ills that have supposedly propelled Trump’s support, from the Republican primaries until now. As in Britain, many have settled on a ‘left behind’ narrative – that it is the poor white working-class losers from globalization that have put Trump over the top. […] Read more »

Why identity politics couldn’t clinch a Clinton win

Many Democrats have believed that a coalition of minorities, millennials and single women would help create a new Democratic majority for years to come. Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign was counting on it. But the “rising American electorate,” as it’s called, failed to carry Clinton across the finish line. It didn’t […] Read more »

How the 2016 Election Exposed America’s Racial and Cultural Divides

The 2016 election exposed an America of deep divides over race, ethnicity and culture — a nation carved into two large coalitions, roughly equal in size but radically different in demographics and desires. … The electorate coalitions in 2016 were similar to the 2012 election, with one major exception: white […] Read more »