Today, the Asian American Legal Defense and Education Fund (AALDEF) released a new report with detailed findings from its nonpartisan multilingual exit poll of 13,846 Asian American voters in the November 2016 elections. The exit poll found that the overwhelming majority of Asian Americans backed Democratic candidates for President and […] Read more »
Racism motivated Trump voters more than authoritarianism
During the 2016 presidential campaign, many observers wondered exactly what motivated voters most: Was it income? Authoritarianism? Racial attitudes? Let the analyses begin. Last week, the widely respected 2016 American National Election Study was released, sending political scientists into a flurry of data modeling and chart making. … Below, I’ll […] Read more »
The blogs vs. Case-Deaton
Anne Case and Angus Deaton have a new paper on white mortality rates. This one is getting attacked a lot more than the 2015 one, though the findings and methods are basically the same — increased death rates for U.S. whites, especially for the uneducated. Andrew Gelman is still on […] Read more »
The Death of the White Working Class Has Been Greatly Exaggerated
Ever since Hillary Clinton and the Democrats failed to hold the White House last November, some members of the party and friendly elements in the media have suggested that the Dems have to renew their focus on white working-class men if they want to win. In this view, liberals have […] Read more »
A 2016 Review: Turnout Wasn’t the Driver of Clinton’s Defeat
In the aftermath of the 2016 presidential election, many analysts suggested that Hillary Clinton lost to Donald J. Trump because of poor Democratic turnout. Months later, it is clear that the turnout was only modestly better for Mr. Trump than expected. To the extent Democratic turnout was weak, it was […] Read more »
Democrats burned by polling blind spot
As they investigate the forces behind the party’s stunning losses in November, Democrats are coming to a troubling conclusion. The party didn’t just lose among rural white voters on Election Day, it may have failed to capture them in its pre-election polling as well. Many pollsters and strategists believe that […] Read more »