A diversity paradox looms over the Democrats’ hopes of recapturing the White House in 2020. The field of Democratic presidential candidates includes the most racial minorities ever, and more minorities will likely vote next year in the party’s primaries than ever before. Yet four white contenders consistently lead in state […] Read more »
White Trump voters are richer than they appear
… Our work suggests that when making voting decisions, people assess their economic position relative to members of their own communities rather than to folks in the whole country. … We find local income position has a significant association with vote choice. As the data in the table show, support […] Read more »
Biden’s national poll numbers — like those for impeachment — haven’t changed much in the past month
It’s hard to debate that former vice president Joe Biden finds himself in an unusual position in polling for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination. He has held a broadly unchallenged lead in national polling and continues to be the candidate who polls best against President Trump in prospective 2020 matchups. […] Read more »
How Voters Turned Virginia From Deep Red to Solid Blue
… Once the heart of the confederacy, Virginia is now the land of Indian grocery stores, Korean churches and Diwali festivals. The state population has boomed — up by 38 percent since 1990, with the biggest growth in densely settled suburban areas like South Riding. One in 10 people eligible […] Read more »
Politics with Amy Walter: What Did Democrats Get Wrong About Religious Voters in 2016?
A recent study from Pew Research found that white people who identify as Christians represent about two-thirds of all Republicans. Meanwhile, Americans unaffiliated with any religion, and racial minorities who identify as Christians, now each make up a bigger share of the Democratic coalition. This week, we take a look […] Read more »
Democrats wanted fairer primaries. But their calendar still prioritizes white liberals.
… It’s almost impossible to design a state-by-state primary process that gives equal weight to every Democratic Party constituency through a process everyone agrees is fair; the party’s coalition is too big and fractious for that. But rather than treating their calendar like something that’s been imposed upon them, Democrats […] Read more »