… But when people make non-falsifiable predictions, they feel less accountable. After all, if a prediction can never be disproved, then it poses no reputational risk. That lack of accountability, in turn, encourages overconfidence and even more extreme predictions. Non-falsifiable predictions thus undermine the quality of our discourse. They also […] Read more »
The Persuasive Power of Repeated Falsehoods
Chances are you heard some blatantly untrue statements during last night’s debate. It’s a cynical, manipulative strategy, but it works: Psychological studies have consistently shown that oft-repeated statements are more likely to be perceived as true, regardless of their actual veracity. Since this “Illusory Truth Effect” was first noted in […] Read more »
The Widening World of Hand-Picked Truths
… In an attempt to dilute the wisdom of the crowd, Google recently tweaked its algorithm so that searching for “vaccination” or “fluoridation,” for example, brings vetted medical information to the top of the results. But presenting people with the best available science doesn’t seem to change many minds. In a […] Read more »
These Social-Science Nuggets Can Make You a Smarter Debate-Watcher
… The debates will be solid political entertainment no matter what, but adding just a little bit of social science to the mix can help reveal hidden aspects and important moments that might otherwise slip by unnoticed. So here are three simple things you can do to be a more […] Read more »
Seeing the seduction of science
I probably shouldn’t tell you this: I deal partly in science, and the more science-y I make it look and sound, the more persuasive I am. I don’t know that from my own experience — though political consulting is built on anecdotes, they can be totally misleading. I know it […] Read more »
Mistaken memories
Last week ended with a momentous Supreme Court decision legalizing same-sex marriage, while this week closes with the patriotism of the Fourth of July. I’m actually going to try to connect those disparate events in a way that’s relevant to survey research methodology. From another perspective, this piece is all […] Read more »