This is the dynamic that could decide the 2024 GOP race

The same fundamental dynamic that decided the 2016 Republican presidential primaries is already resurfacing as the 2024 contest takes shape. As in 2016, early polls of next year’s contest show the Republican electorate is again sharply dividing about former President Donald Trump along lines of education. In both state and […] Read more »

Supreme Court’s student debt decision could affect millions of swing state voters

The Supreme Court heard arguments this week on the Biden administration’s plan to provide student debt relief and called into question the survival of a proposal that has far-reaching impacts. The executive action, which the administration announced in August before the 2022 fall election (in part to fire up younger […] Read more »

Why Trump is a clear favorite for the 2024 GOP nomination

… Trump is a clear, though not prohibitive, favorite to win next year’s Republican nomination for president. Right now, he’s averaging about 44% in the national primary polls. He’s 15 points ahead of DeSantis who is at 29%. A 15-point lead may not seem impressive at this early stage of […] Read more »

Why Red v. Blue Became Me v. You: Polarization, Part II

A political identity–being a liberal or Democrat (a “D”) versus being a conservative or Republican (an “R”)–has become viscerally more important to more Americans, reaching partisan intensities not seen for at least a century and not seen elsewhere in the western world. R’s and D’s have increasingly and heatedly differed […] Read more »