… Understanding why MAGA, also known as the Republican base, supports Trump, reveals why the GOP can’t break away from him: They are intensely loyal to Trump, motivated by status threat, and convert their anxiety and commitment into votes. If any Republican tries to do disavow Trump, they will face […] Read more »
Why Did Republicans Outperform The Polls Again? Two Theories.
… This is a relatively new phenomenon, but pollsters have increasingly found evidence of partisan nonresponse — that is, particular types of Republicans are just less likely to take surveys, so these voters’ opinions are not reflected in survey data. This was especially relevant in understanding Trump’s support, too, as […] Read more »
What 2020’s Election Poll Errors Tell Us About the Accuracy of Issue Polling
Most preelection polls in 2020 overstated Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump in the national vote for president, and in some states incorrectly indicated that Biden would likely win or that the race would be close when it was not. These problems led some commentators to argue that “polling is […] Read more »
Checking on Biden’s Ratings
At this moment, just 39 days into Joe Biden’s presidency, it’s impossible to predict whether he will seek a second term. Biden aides say he won’t create a reelection committee until after the midterms. Even if he passes on another run, Vice President Kamala Harris’s chances at the top prize, […] Read more »
The Republican Party Changed Forever — For The Better — Under President Donald Trump
In 2020, President Donald J. Trump created one of the greatest voter coalitions in American political history, bringing millions of new voters into the Republican Party and expanding the GOP’s vote among African Americans and Hispanic Americans. The electoral votes that decided this election were determined by a mere 44,000 […] Read more »
Joe Biden Approval Rating Shows Honeymoon Continues — Especially Among Investors
Joe Biden is still enjoying a honeymoon as IBD/TIPP’s presidential approval rating holds near its highest level since mid-2009. The March IBD/TIPP Poll finds a steady 53% of adults approve of how President Biden is handling his job, while just 30% disapprove of his performance. Among registered voters, 57% approve […] Read more »