Key Points• The predictive power of demographics makes county margins strongly correlated and thus inferable from each other. Comparing the actual results to the expected results based on county demographics gives us a better idea of candidate performance.• In the 2020 presidential election, Democrats overperformed in states with high numbers […] Read more »
Roosevelt. Johnson. Biden?
… It is pretty safe to say the reason Biden won the party nod is that once Bernie Sanders elbowed aside his colleague Elizabeth Warren and effectively consolidated the Left, panic set in among the centrists, and voilà: Doubts about Biden disappeared and the nomination was his, precisely because he […] Read more »
Pessimistic View of Race Relations Exists Among Majority of Americans
As an element of American life, a majority of people in the country view the state of race relations as mostly bad according to the newest edition of the Grinnell College National Poll. The poll, a partnership between Grinnell College and J. Ann Selzer of Selzer & Company, was released […] Read more »
Most Americans Agree on Four Foundations of Democracy, but Execution of Those Ideals Receives Failing Grades
While Americans have high ideals for what makes up our democracy, a new Grinnell College National Poll shows our country gets failing grades when it comes to executing those ideals in real life. The poll, a partnership between Grinnell College and J. Ann Selzer of Selzer & Company, was released […] Read more »
Biden’s smart bipartisan message
Many commentators seem fascinated, even perplexed, by President Biden’s efforts to define bipartisanship as support from Republican voters instead of from GOP lawmakers. They seem to have missed the political rhetoric of the last 20 years, while also failing to grasp how bipartisanship works in the public mind. … Politicians […] Read more »
The Fate of Biden’s Agenda Hangs in the Balance
Every 10 years, after the collection of census data, states are required to redraw the boundaries of their congressional districts to ensure that they remain equal in population. The process — as readers of this newspaper know — is vulnerable to gerrymandering, in which districts are redrawn to give favored […] Read more »