Excuse me, but is that a partisan wave building?

GOP insiders are now hoping for the best but bracing for the worst. Veteran Republicans have all but given up on Donald Trump’s reelection and are now focused on minimizing the damage down ballot. They criticize Trump’s poor messaging and salute the Democrats’ fundraising numbers, which reflect Democratic enthusiasm and […] Read more »

Biden leads Trump. So did Hillary Clinton. For Democrats, it’s a worrisome campaign deja vu

The polls are once again delivering feel-good boosts to Democrats: Joe Biden beats President Trump by 10, 11 or 12 points nationally, depending on the day. His edge in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin averages eight. Propeller-heads promise better than 4 in 5 odds of a new president next year. But […] Read more »

The perils of polls

We are in the high season of political polls. It feels like we are pelted with a new one by the hour. Public interest and the looming Election Day charge the atmosphere. Are the polls solid? Can they be trusted? What’s the sample size? I’ve never been called. Partisans bicker […] Read more »

Why Biden’s poll lead is different than Hillary Clinton’s

For many political junkies and analysts, the 2020 presidential campaign feels eerily familiar. The national polls show the Democrat has a big lead. There are some usually Republican states that seem to be in play. And the Trump campaign is relying heavily on a base-focus strategy. It’s all very 2016 […] Read more »