What had shaped up to be a fairly mild, predictable Senate cycle has become one of the hairiest in memory. To see why, let’s start with the stakes: The policy consequences of Republicans losing only a seat or two and holding onto a sliver of a majority is dramatically different […] Read more »
Where The Presidential Race Stands Before The Last Debate
… As President Trump and Joe Biden prepare to take the stage tonight for the final presidential debate, Trump has just a 12 in 100 chance of winning the presidency, while Biden has an 88 in 100 chance, according to our presidential forecast. And according to national polls, Biden leads […] Read more »
Why Trump’s road to 270 is narrow
President Donald Trump faces a large deficit in the polls right now. If the election were held today, he’d very likely lose. But if Trump were to pull off a surprising win, how would he do it? A look at the electoral map reveals just how narrow Trump’s possible paths […] Read more »
With Tension Draining Out of the Presidential Race, Will GOP Voters Stay Home?
The drama and uncertainty that seems to have leaked out of the presidential race has found its way into the fight for control of the U.S. Senate. If you are into either electoral politics or congressional policy, the range of possible outcomes in next month’s elections is dizzying. At one […] Read more »
The Senate: Iowa to Leans Democratic
Key Points• We are moving the Iowa Senate race from Toss-up to Leans Democratic. Iowa remains a Toss-up for president.• Iowa may have replaced North Carolina as the race likeliest to decide Senate control, although North Carolina remains a very viable Democratic target despite Cal Cunningham’s (D) troubles.• We have […] Read more »
Can President Trump win an Electoral College majority in 2020?
… To win reelection, President Trump will have to reduce Joe Biden’s national vote advantage, which now stands at more than 10 percentage points, by about 8 points during the final two weeks of the campaign, an accomplishment for which there’s no clear precedent in American history. If he falls […] Read more »