As Election Day approaches and President Donald Trump continues to trail Joe Biden by high single digits both nationally and in key states, their respective bases are buzzing with either hope or dread that “the polls could be wrong again.” In truth, public opinion polls are imperfect instruments, and there’s […] Read more »
Final Forecast: Results from Two Methods of Predicting the 2020 Presidential Election
Key Points• A presidential election forecasting model based on the president’s approval rating, first published at the Crystal Ball in early August, continues to show Joe Biden as a favorite in next week’s presidential election.• An average of current state-level polling produces a very similar Electoral College projection.• These forecasting […] Read more »
The Election May Hinge on Pennsylvania. Can the Polls Get the State Right?
If President Trump pulls off a come-from-behind victory on Nov. 3, it’s likely to run through Pennsylvania — one of the three Midwestern states he won by less than one percentage point in 2016, and arguably the one that’s still within range for him. Joseph R. Biden Jr., the Democratic […] Read more »
9 days to go: Biden’s lead over Trump is holding, while Clinton’s was collapsing at this point
The clock is running out on President Donald Trump’s chances for a comeback. He continues to trail former Vice President Joe Biden nationally and in the key swing states with just nine days to go. But perhaps most worrisome for the President: Trump’s clearly behind his 2016 pace. By this […] Read more »
Beyond the Needle: Probability experts assess 2020 race
The one thing most likely to conjure nightmares of the 2016 election night for opponents of President Donald Trump is the Needle. A graphic on The New York Times’ website, the Needle measured in real time the probability of victory for Trump or Hillary Clinton as votes were counted. Its […] Read more »
How Trump is dragging down fellow Republicans
President Donald Trump’s struggles in the polls have been well documented. He entered the final debate down about 10 points to former Vice President Joe Biden and trailed in key swing states. Less discussed is that Trump has hurt Republicans’ chances of holding onto Senate control and pretty much eliminated […] Read more »