As Election Day draws closer, Americans are being inundated with polls about the state of the presidential race. And understandably, many are wondering whether polls can be trusted after Donald Trump’s surprise victory in 2016. A better question to ask may be what, exactly, are we trusting polls to do? […] Read more »
‘People Are Going To Be Shocked’: Return of the ‘Shy’ Trump Voter?
… In 2016, months of national polls confidently showed Hillary Clinton ahead, and set many Americans up for a shock on Election Night, when the Electoral College tilted decisively in Trump’s favor. Two pollsters who weren’t blindsided by this are Arie Kapteyn and Robert Cahaly. … This year, both men […] Read more »
WSJ/NBC News Survey Finds No Late Shift Toward Trump So Far
A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News survey has found no evidence, so far, of the kind of late surge toward President Trump among undecided voters that helped produce his unexpected wins in 2016. When pollsters asked themselves how so many missed signs that Mr. Trump would win the 2016 election, […] Read more »
Georgia’s Senate Races Both Move to Toss-up
Key Points• Georgia’s two Senate races move to Toss-up.• They may be the only two races we leave in Toss-up when we release our final election picks on Monday.• The concept of Occam’s Razor — the idea that the simplest explanation is sometimes the likeliest explanation — might be a […] Read more »
We Have A Lot Of New Polls But There’s Little Sign Of The Presidential Race Tightening
After a surprisingly sluggish weekend for polling, the floodgates have opened, with a mix of high-quality polls, low-quality polls and pretty much everything in between. And although there are some outliers in both directions, they tell a fairly consistent story, overall: A steady race nationally, perhaps with some gains for […] Read more »
Biden’s Path to 270 Widens, Trump’s Path Narrows, as Texas Moves to Toss Up
Less than a week out from Election Day and President Donald Trump is playing catch-up. In 2016, he won 30 states (and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District) and their 306 electoral votes. Today, just 20 states, worth 125 electoral votes, are safely in his column. Former Vice President Joe Biden is […] Read more »