If the polls are right, Joe Biden could post the most decisive victory in a presidential election in three and a half decades, surpassing Bill Clinton’s win in 1996. That’s a big “if.” … Of course, it’s possible the polls could be off by even more than they were four […] Read more »
My predictions for the 2020 presidential and congressional races
… Democrats need not fear. This, my sixth published biennial election prediction essay, is perhaps my easiest: Former vice president Joe Biden will win comfortably unless we experience the greatest polling failure in modern history. Democrats will also gain control of the Senate and expand their majority in the House. […] Read more »
Why You Can’t Rely on Election Forecasts
… With all the anxiety about Tuesday’s vote, it’s understandable that many of us look to statisticians’ election models to tell us what will happen. If they say your candidate has an 80 percent chance of winning, you feel reassured. But after Donald Trump’s surprising victory in 2016 seemed to […] Read more »
On Election Night, these are the first states to watch
Election Day may well turn into Election Week this year with late returns deciding the presidency, but there still will be a large group of Americans tuning in on Tuesday trying to read the tea leaves of the early results. For those politically-obsessed souls, the Data Download is happy to […] Read more »
Why this race likely comes down to Arizona and Pennsylvania
President Donald Trump is trying to stop former Vice President Joe Biden’s pathway to 270 electoral votes. The polls released over the weekend suggest that this will be a difficult, but not an impossible task. Trump’s best path to stop Biden is for there to be a larger than average […] Read more »
Biden leads, Trump needs Election Day surge to win
Joe Biden heads into Election Day preferred by voters who have already cast their ballots early. President Trump has a lead among those who plan to show up on November 3. So will Biden’s lead hold up? If we trot out the old horserace analogy, Biden has a lead, but […] Read more »