Senate races across the country are converging with the trend in the presidential race in that same state, underscoring the increasingly parliamentary nature of American elections. In 2016, for the first time since the direct election of all senators began in 1914, every Senate race finished the same way as […] Read more »
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Final Ratings for the 2020 Election
Key Points• Our final Electoral College ratings show Joe Biden at 321 electoral votes and Donald Trump at 217.• Democrats are narrow favorites to capture a Senate majority, 50-48 with two Toss-ups — the two Georgia races, both of which we think are likely to go to runoffs.• We have […] Read more »
Biden’s Favored In Our Final Presidential Forecast, But It’s A Fine Line Between A Landslide And A Nail-Biter
… Biden’s standing is considerably stronger than Clinton’s at the end of the 2016 race. His lead is larger than Clinton’s in every battleground state, and more than double her lead nationally. Our model forecasts Biden to win the popular vote by 8 percentage points, more than twice Clinton’s projected […] Read more »
Biden has the advantage, but Trump will say otherwise
The choice is as clear as it gets. Do you believe President Donald Trump or your eyes? … I suppose it’s possible that all of the polls are wrong, even though they’re conducted by various survey research firms and publications using different methodologies. To see Trump winning, you must believe […] Read more »
Forecasting the US elections — as of Nov. 2
Right now, our model thinks Joe Biden is very likely to beat Donald Trump in the electoral college. CONT. The Economist The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack Read more »
POLITICO’s final Election Forecast: Biden in command, Senate up for grabs
The 2020 election is ending in a frenzy of swing-state travel and warnings of a chaotic vote count befitting this head-spinning year in American politics. But lower the din for a moment, and you’re left with a presidential contest that’s been remarkably stable. The same is true of POLITICO’s Election […] Read more »