… The forecasts were off. We were forecasting Biden to get 54.4% of the two-party vote and it seems that he only got 52% or so. We forecasted Biden at 356 electoral votes and it seems that he’ll only end up with 280 or so. We had uncertainty intervals, and […] Read more »
An embarrassing failure for election pollsters
Watching the presidential election returns on election night in retirement community of The Villages, Florida. Ricardo Arduengo/AFP via Getty Images W. Joseph Campbell, American University School of Communication Election polling is facing yet another reckoning following its uneven-at-best performance in this year’s voting. Although the outcome in the 2020 presidential […] Read more »
As in 2016, polls gave a misleading picture of the race. What happened?
As the results rolled in on Tuesday night, a feeling of déjà vu arrived along with them. Pre-election polls, it appeared, had been misleading once again. While the nation awaits final results from Michigan, Pennsylvania and a few other states, it is already clear — no matter who ends up […] Read more »
Sifting Through the Results So Far
… Amidst the highest turnout in modern history, both Biden and President Donald Trump turned out their bases and battled in an epic duel that remains undecided. In our final pre-election assessment, we warned of the possibility that many polls could be missing a significant share of the Trump electorate, […] Read more »
Fox News Made a Big Call in Arizona, Buoying Biden and Angering Trump
It was just after 12:30 a.m. on election night, and Fox News was under fire. “Arnon, we’re getting a lot of incoming here, and we need you to answer some questions,” the network’s chief political anchor, Bret Baier, said pointedly. “Shoot!” Arnon Mishkin replied, his face breaking into a smile. […] Read more »
What We’ll Know, and When We’ll Know
This year, the rise of mail voting will make election night much harder to follow. In most states, the results will be heavily skewed at various points of the night, depending on when a state counts mail ballots, in-person early voting or Election Day voting. In other words, the results […] Read more »