Nearly all election polls forecasted a blue wave. But when that failed to materialize, pollsters looked foolish — and the news organizations they partner with lost credibility too. David Folkenflik, NPR News The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign […] Read more »
Bad polls, fake news, and that damned needle: Here’s how the media covered a twisty Election Night
That was quite a ride, wasn’t it? Or, rather, this election is quite a ride, given that it’s still going on. The quadrennial media rituals — “too early to call,” a sudden awareness of the nation’s counties, Steve Kornacki — all returned for the 2020 presidential election. As of Wednesday […] Read more »
Polling outlets draw fire after missing mark again
The polling industry and election forecasters suffered another embarrassing election night that will call into question the usefulness of public opinion surveys and horse race political coverage that appeared to once again underestimate President Trump’s support. Votes are still being tallied in critical battleground states, meaning the final verdict on […] Read more »
Interpreting the Early Results of the 2020 Election
What can the 2020 election teach us about polling and politics? On the afternoon after Election Day, Matt Grossmann hosts the first-ever live edition of the Science of Politics podcast with G. Elliott Morris, data journalist at The Economist to discuss where exactly the models went wrong (and what they […] Read more »
It’s too early to trash the polls
After Donald Trump’s surprise victory in 2016, the 2020 election became a referendum on both Trump’s first term and the pollsters and forecasters who appeared to underestimate his chances four years ago. That first question hasn’t yet been settled. But many were quick to declare a verdict on the second. […] Read more »
2020’s polling miss? These Republicans say they saw it coming.
A misread of who is likely to vote. An overreliance on party registration. Failing to reach voters where they’re most likely to respond — via text and email — in favor of a phone call. These are just some of the explanations for the great polling miss of the 2020 […] Read more »