Asking for a polling post-mortem at this stage is a little bit like asking a coroner for the cause of death while the body is still at the crime scene. You’re going to have to wait to conduct a full autopsy. But make no mistake: It’s not too early to […] Read more »
Did ‘Shy Trump Voters’ throw off the polls? Maybe not.
The polls underestimated President Trump’s strength yet again during the 2020 election — and, yet again, “Shy Trump Voters” who feel social pressure to stay silent about their views are being cited as a potential cause of the miss. So the theory goes, these voters believe that even strangers would […] Read more »
The Curious Case of Failed Electoral Polls: Four takeaways for political pollsters from a customer insights researcher
By Rasto Ivanic, GroupSolver By the time all the votes are counted, the ultimate margin of error may not be as huge as it appeared in the morning after the 2020 elections. However, it is already fairly certain that pollsters continue to struggle mightily with predicting election results despite conducting […] Read more »
Biden Wins — Pretty Convincingly In The End
Even if you knew in advance about the “blue shift” that would occur in states like Pennsylvania — and we did know in advance about it! — it’s been hard to make enough of a mental adjustment for it this week. Numbers flashing across a TV ticker have a certain […] Read more »
Biden May Have Won The Election — But The Deep Partisan Divide In America Remains
… A plurality of Americans, including the vast majority of Asian, Black and Hispanic voters, backed the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate. A slightly smaller bloc, including the majority of white Americans and the overwhelming majority of white evangelical Protestants, backed the Republican Party’s candidate. … In short, what made Tuesday […] Read more »
Where Polls Got It Wrong
In the run up to the 2020 election, many polls show Joe Biden and Democrats with a significant lead, both nationally and in multiple swing states. As NPR’s Danielle Kurtzleben reports, pollsters are now confronting the question of how far off polls were and what caused it. NPR News The OPINION […] Read more »