… For the second straight presidential election, the polling industry missed the mark. The miss was not as blatant as in 2016, when polls suggested Mr. Trump would lose, nor was the miss as large as it appeared it might be on election night. Once all the votes are counted, […] Read more »
Confessions of a pollster: Time to put the election forecasting industry out of its misery
… Because they focused so much on campaigns and candidates, much of the election forecasting industry missed what was happening in America. In May, 23% of voters believed their personal finances were getting better. That grew to 27% by mid-October and 29% right before the election. That’s the same trend […] Read more »
Can we stop talking about how we’re better off without election forecasting?
This is a public service post of sorts, meant to collect some reasons why getting rid of election forecasts is a non-starter in one place. First to set context: what are the reasons people argue we should give them up? This is far from an exhaustive list (and some of […] Read more »
‘I Don’t Have a Happy Ending’: A Pollster on What Went Wrong
Over the past few days, there’s been much consternation over this year’s polling of the presidential race. How did we end up with a close election in key swing states after months of surveys that suggested there could be a Democratic landslide? It’s a familiar crisis: After the 2016 election, […] Read more »
The 2020 Election Was A Good One For Republicans Not Named Trump
Republicans outperformed the polls up and down the ballot in the 2020 election, to the surprise even of many Republican political operatives and survey researchers. To be clear, Democrat Joe Biden defeated President Trump; Democrats will still control the House and still have a chance of picking up the Senate. […] Read more »
The Polls Weren’t Great. But That’s Pretty Normal.
… First, some good news for the polls: Assuming current results hold, the only states where presidential polling averages got the winners wrong will be Florida, North Carolina and the 2nd Congressional District in Maine. … The better way to evaluate polls is how close they come on vote margins, […] Read more »