… Trump is a clear, though not prohibitive, favorite to win next year’s Republican nomination for president. Right now, he’s averaging about 44% in the national primary polls. He’s 15 points ahead of DeSantis who is at 29%. A 15-point lead may not seem impressive at this early stage of […] Read more »
Republicans Retain Edge in Electoral College Tie
Key Points• If no candidate receives a majority of Electoral College votes, the U.S. House of Representatives elected in the 2024 election would decide the presidency.• Republicans are very likely to continue to control enough House delegations to select the GOP nominee as the winner, meaning that 269 is effectively […] Read more »
The philosophical and empirical cases for ignoring bad or biased pollsters
… I am admittedly a bit late to this, but I have a few comments to make on FiveThirtyEight’s recently published retrospective on their forecasts of the 2022 midterm elections. I am writing this as someone who, like Nate Silver, makes a lot of election forecasts, so knows the struggle […] Read more »
Initial House Ratings: Battle for Majority Starts as a Toss-up
Key Points• The overall battle for House control in 2024 starts as a Toss-up.• Relatively similar numbers of Democratic and Republican seats start in the most competitive Toss-up and Leans categories, although Republicans start with a few more targets in large part because of the likelihood that they will benefit […] Read more »
Myths about Biden’s electoral strength could spell trouble in 2024
It always amazes me how quickly we forget the anxiety that surrounds close elections. The five anxious days it took for The Associated Press and networks to call the outcome of the 2020 election is burned into the brains of close election-watchers like me. Yet some commentators have developed overly […] Read more »
The Senate Primaries to Watch So Far
Key Points• It has been over a decade since an incumbent senator was successfully primaried in a regularly-scheduled election; though a few senators may be vulnerable, 2024 may continue that streak.• Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s (D-CA) decision to retire removed one vulnerable senator from the primary conversation; Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s (I-AZ) […] Read more »