The political world is aflutter with recent polling showing voters of all partisan stripes saying President Joe Biden should not run again. He is too old, asserted observers who have been making the same argument for months. Polls also showed — and this may knock you off your seat — […] Read more »
Trump Could Definitely Beat Biden
Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 Republican primary is not certain. But it now looks more than merely likely. … Without question, Trump is an exceptionally weak general-election candidate. To no small extent, his personal odiousness does much of the Democratic Party’s persuasion-and-mobilization work for it. … But that doesn’t […] Read more »
Biden’s fate lies with Republicans more than Democrats
… An NBC News poll out just days before his announcement shows that 51 percent of Democrats said they’d prefer Biden not run. A lot of that reflects his age, but his age was a concern in 2020, too. There is almost zero doubt that Biden will be the 2024 […] Read more »
Joe Biden Isn’t Popular. That Might Not Matter in 2024.
By almost any historic yardstick, President Joe Biden is beginning the reelection campaign he formally announced today in a vulnerable position. His job-approval rating has consistently come in at 45 percent or less; in several recent high-quality national polls, it has dipped closer to 40 percent. In surveys, three-fourths or […] Read more »
Is Biden’s Approval Rating Too Weak for Him to Win?
Key Points• Presidential approval is typically a good predictor of the share of the vote an incumbent president will receive.• Recent presidents often ran a little ahead of their approval as opposed to a little behind, although the sample size is very small.• Assuming President Biden’s approval, which is mired […] Read more »
Why 2024 could be the most boring presidential primary season ever
For people who write about electoral, or “horse race,” politics, few things are more enjoyable than an exciting presidential primary season. Sometimes, both Democrats and Republicans cooperate by holding gripping fights for the party nods (see 2008). Sometimes, however, voters in both parties quickly coalesce around front-runners (see 2000). A […] Read more »