… We would always like to make a final poll estimate that is exactly on target with the final popular vote percentage for both candidates. That is the goal. But our estimate (and almost all other national polls at the end), gave a broadly accurate picture of what was, in […] Read more »
In Hindsight, Those Presidential Polls Looked Just Fine
For as much criticism as pollsters endured in the run-up to Election Day, a look back shows many of them hit very close to the bull’s-eye for the presidential race — but some did better than others. [cont.] Scott Neuman, NPR Read more »
More Evidence that Obama’s Victory Reflects the Economic Fundamentals
If you think the “fundamentals” (and by the “fundamentals,” I mean the economy) were stacked in Mitt Romney’s favor in the 2012 presidential election, you’re not alone. You share the prevailing beliefs of many political observers. … Most versions of their explanations go something like this: the fundamentals were in […] Read more »
Aggregating the Aggregates
… All told, the forecasts did quite well. But look at what worked better: averaging over the forecasts. This makes good statistical sense: as Alex points out with a fun Netflix example, it makes more sense to keep as much information as possible. In a Bayesian framework, why pick just […] Read more »
US election result a triumph for number nerds
… According to pundits, Mitt Romney and Barack Obama were on a knife’s edge – the race was too close to call, and the election count could take weeks. … Polling data analysts with a background in complex maths, rather than realpolitik, pored over poll after poll, to not only pick […] Read more »
A Second Look at National Pollster Accuracy
Here are two more takes at it. First, courtesy of UNC Ph.D. student Brice Acree, takes my original plot and then adds an underlying measure of uncertainty—essentially, the margin of error for the estimated margin of victory. Second, spurred on by a friend who is also a pollster, I calculated […] Read more »