Polls, pundits and even bookmakers have already elected President Hillary Clinton. However, at this point in the Game of Oval Office Thrones, models are better oracles than polls – and the models do not like her odds. CONT. Clifford Young, Ipsos Public Affairs Read more »
2014: Right Turn on a Bumpy Road
Analysis of ABC News/Washington Post poll results on the 2014 midterm elections and a look ahead to 2016. Produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates and presented by Gary Langer at the annual meeting of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, May 15, 2015, in Hollywood, Florida. Langer […] Read more »
The failure of the polls in Britain
… So where did our cousins go wrong? First, I believe they were operating on the wrong level of analysis. Their data were on one level and what they were trying to predict was on another. The polls were looking at the percentage of the national vote each party was […] Read more »
UK: We got it wrong. Why?
… We got the election wrong. So did the other ten polling companies who produced eve-of-election voting intentions: we all said the race was too-close-to-call. Only by admitting that we are all at fault can we start the journey to finding out why. That journey’s first stop is 1992. CONT. […] Read more »
What Else We Got Wrong In Our U.K. Election Model
With the benefit of a few more days to examine the data — and a lot more hours of sleep — we can make a few additional points about what went wrong with our U.K. election forecasting model. CONT. Ben Lauderdale (LSE), FiveThirtyEight Read more »
Nate Silver On Missed UK Forecasts: We Flubbed The Margin Of Error
Data guru Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com tells NPR’s Scott Simon how all the forecasts, including his own, were so far off in predicting the results of this week’s British election. NPR Read more »