Some of our readers may recall that the Crystal Ball published its first 2016 Electoral College map at the end of March. It was somewhat controversial — at least judging by many of the reactions we received. As you see below, at that time we projected Hillary Clinton at 347 […] Read more »
A study of Brexit
Investors around the world just bet billions on British polls. “A rally in European stocks Monday propelled the regional benchmark to its best daily percentage performance in nearly 10 months after polls showed support for the U.K. remaining in the European Union gaining ground,” MarketWatch proclaimed Monday. It’s a fascinating […] Read more »
There is no ‘Trump Bump’ in the polls — just a growing lead for the Democrats
Lots of commentary has accompanied the “Trump Bump,” as the alleged bump in Donald Trump’s poll numbers has been called. While most polls had Hillary Clinton, the presumptive Democratic nominee, up by a solid 10-point margin as late as March, this lead seemed to have shrunk. … Is this shift […] Read more »
Hispanic Voters Will Decide Bernie Sanders’s Fate in California
Three recent surveys from highly rated polling firms (Marist College, Field and Public Policy Institute of California) show Bernie Sanders just 2 points behind Hillary Clinton in California. Clinton is ahead by double digits, however, in other polls, including one that has her up by 18 percentage points. It’s making […] Read more »
Asking the Right Question
… We have been fielding just one question since the start of the year: Who are you most likely to vote for in the upcoming presidential election? With the answers of: Definitely Republican candidate, Likely Republican candidate, Likely Democratic candidate, Definitely Democratic candidate, and not voting. This question focuses on […] Read more »
Model Points to Close California Result Between Clinton and Sanders
On June 7, five states — California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota — will hold primary elections. It is the last major day of primaries of 2016, and with the Republican race already decided, almost all of the attention will be focused on the Democratic side, where […] Read more »