In this Sunday’s Data Download, Chuck Todd highlights states that are beginning to lean Democratic, including Florida, where polls show Clinton with a double-digit lead over Trump. NBC News Read more »
Election Model Update: Still Uphill for Republicans in White House Race
The Moody’s Analytics election model is updated to reflect the June economic forecast, and the results have changed little from previous months. … The election model bases its forecast on a two-year change of the economic variables, from the third quarter of 2014 to the third quarter of 2016. CONT. […] Read more »
The 270 Project: Try To Predict Who Will Win The Election
… We at NPR Politics wanted a data-driven, quantitative way to answer the fundamental question of whether Trump can win, or if this is Hillary Clinton’s race to lose — and give readers the power to test it out themselves. There’s perhaps no better way to do that than through […] Read more »
The Political Science Election Forecasts of the 2016 Presidential and Congressional Elections
Normally around this time in a presidential election cycle — the “interregnum,” as it has come to be known — we would be waiting for the dust from the nomination campaigns to settle before moving on to the conventions and to considerations of the general election race. As you may […] Read more »
Donald Trump Has A 20 Percent Chance Of Becoming President
How do you predict a general election with Donald Trump? … In fact, despite (or perhaps because of) the unusual nature of his candidacy, the conventional wisdom holds that Trump is a fairly substantial underdog. … But should this seeming consensus give us more confidence — or make us nervous […] Read more »
The 2016 election is already decided. History says Hillary Clinton wins.
… With the exception of 2000, the result of every presidential election since, and including, 1980 has been determined before the general election even officially began. In fact, most of these elections were effectively decided by this point in the cycle. There is no reason to think that this year, […] Read more »