Though the results on Election Night up and down the ticket were ultimately different than the predictions from experts, pundits and analysts, a factual look back shows that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s (DCCC) internal polling clearly and accurately predicted the rise, fall, and ultimate landing for House Democratic candidates. […] Read more »
Survey weighting and that 2% swing
Nate Silver agrees with me that much of that shocking 2% swing can be explained by systematic differences between sample and population: survey respondents included too many Clinton supporters, even after corrections from existing survey adjustments. In Nate’s words, “Pollsters Probably Didn’t Talk To Enough White Voters Without College Degrees.” […] Read more »
Campaign for President 2016: Interview with Nate Silver
Nancy Cordes, Congressional Correspondent for CBS News, spoke with Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight about polling during the 2016 election. Institute of Politics, Harvard University Read more »
Pollsters Probably Didn’t Talk To Enough White Voters Without College Degrees
… With Clinton’s lead in the popular vote still expanding, the national polls are going to wind up having been pretty good (they showed her winning by 3 to 4 percentage points, and she’ll eventually win by about 2 points). The state polls? Not so hot. What matters, though, is […] Read more »
Which election forecast was the most accurate? Or rather: The least wrong?
Few political observers saw Trump winning the presidential election. Afterward, some election forecasters ate crow. One actually ate a bug. But despite the inevitable lamentations — and recriminations — about election forecasts, there has been little rigorous evaluation of their performance. So we did one. CONT. Pavel Atanasov & Regina […] Read more »
How Republicans got polling right in 2016
Many pundits were surprised by Donald Trump’s win, prompting the question, ‘How did the polls get this so wrong?’ Indeed, particularly at the state level, a number of public polls missed the final results by a wide margin. But polls conducted for the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) were among […] Read more »