It’s June, five months out from the fall elections, and the midterm speculation has gone from a simmer to a slow boil. Over the past year, thanks to an expanding body of survey research, the political conventional wisdom has evolved from wishful thinking (the blue wave is inevitable) to educated […] Read more »
California Results Are Consistent With a Competitive House Race
The results of the California top-two primary elections on Tuesday won’t be final for weeks, but the initial returns offer a useful if rough indicator of the general election. Over all, the results were in line with national expectations for November: a competitive, if perhaps Democratic-tilting, race for the House. […] Read more »
Here’s what we’ve learned from the U.S. congressional primaries so far
This year’s congressional primaries looked to be tumultuous for both parties. Democrats are fielding three times as many candidates as they had in 2016. Republican incumbents, meanwhile, were worried that they’d face primary challengers if they antagonized President Trump’s supporters. Slightly less than one-third of the incumbents seeking reelection have […] Read more »
California Will Have Clues for the Nation: How to Watch the Primary
The California primary elections on Tuesday might give us a better idea of whether Democrats are headed for a so-called wave election — or whether their recent slide in the generic ballot and the bump in President Trump’s approval rating mean they should worry. The quirks that make the California […] Read more »
Final California Primary Preview: High Stakes for House Democrats
Democrats’ route to the House majority runs through California more than any other state. Nationally, they need to win 23 GOP seats to win the chamber, and in California alone, there are seven Republican incumbents sitting in seats Hillary Clinton carried in 2016. Four of those seven seats include at […] Read more »
Pollsters sweat California elections
Pollsters are nervously awaiting California primary election results Tuesday after struggling with complications stemming from the state’s unique top-two primary system and the sheer size of the candidate fields this year. With a 27-candidate governor’s race, a Senate contest featuring 32 names, and several crowded House primaries with national implications, […] Read more »