… Biden’s candidacy is perplexing to analysts because he’s clearly a front-runner (i.e. he leads in every poll), but he’s not running away with the primary. This is true nationally (where he’s hovered around 30%) and is especially the case in Iowa, where he’s polling lower. Based solely on the […] Read more »
The four charts to keep in mind when you look at early-primary polling
… It’s all interesting and the stakes are obviously enormous. It’s just that … we might want to be wary about reading too much into things. Since 2008, the states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina have held 15 party primary contests. Of those 15, only five times were […] Read more »
GOP Could Be Bracing for an Aftershock
From time to time I think about the first time I tried the Southern delicacy that is turducken—a deboned chicken stuffed inside a deboned duck, all inside a deboned turkey. I didn’t like it. As somebody once said, “There is just too much going on there.” We have a lot […] Read more »
From a former disbeliever: Why Texas could go blue in 2020
Texas politics are in the spotlight again this week. A number of House Republicans from the state have announced their retirements, and, after a mass shooting in El Paso this past weekend, Beto O’Rourke tussled with President Donald Trump over differing responses to the shootings. In the backdrop of these […] Read more »
Polls Since The Second Debate Show Kamala Harris Slipping
Polls since last week’s Democratic debate haven’t shown the sort of dramatic swings that we saw after Round 1 — but they do show some shifts. In particular, they show further downward movement for Kamala Harris, who had already lost much of her bounce following the first debate. CONT. Nate […] Read more »
Where I Think The Candidates Stand After The Second Debate
I’m writing this on Thursday morning, before there’s much, if any, polling available that reflects how Democrats’ preferences changed following the two-night presidential debate this week. But even before the debate, some candidates had been on the move in the three weeks since my last comprehensive assessment of the Democratic […] Read more »