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We lack the data to predict Nevada’s outcome. Be wary of pundits’ gut instincts.

… In a normal election, this lack of concrete information wouldn’t be a problem: Nobody ever died because they didn’t see enough Nevada polling. But primaries aren’t normal elections. The trajectory of the race is often influenced by media-created “expectations” and narratives about “momentum.” And in Nevada, many political pros […] Read more »

Democrats are picking a nominee based on the factor they’re worst at evaluating

The incident that served as the best predictor of the 2020 Democratic presidential primary actually happened in 2011. That October, then-Gov. Rick Perry (R-Tex.) was leading the Republican field as the party tried to identify a candidate who could beat incumbent President Barack Obama. In a Washington Post-ABC News poll, […] Read more »

Sanders Gains in Post-New Hampshire Polling

Senator Bernie Sanders has improved his standing in national polls since his victory in the New Hampshire primary, raising the possibility that he could amass a commanding or even insurmountable delegate lead on Super Tuesday in two weeks. CONT. Nate Cohn, New York Times Read more »

Bloomberg camp’s “dire” warning: Sanders soon unstoppable

Mike Bloomberg’s campaign is sounding the alarm that Bernie Sanders will soon amass an unsurmountable delegate lead if the Democratic field stays split — and took the extraordinary step of suggesting laggards should drop out. CONT. Mike Allen, Axios Read more »