Polls showed Joe Biden, right, holding double-digit leads over Donald Trump, left, in the run-up to the 2020 election, but he won election by only 4.5 percentage points. AP Photo/Patrick Semansky, File W. Joseph Campbell, American University School of Communication Their record is uneven. They misfired in one way or […] Read more »
One year out, here’s what we know about how the presidential race will look on Labor Day 2024
Much remains unknown of course about the presidential general election whose traditional kick-off will come one year from today on Labor Day, 2024. But one thing is already clear: the race will almost certainly be decided by a handful of voters in the very few states not entirely secure for […] Read more »
For the GOP, it’s all over but the shouting … and there will be plenty of shouting
Watching this fight for the Republican presidential nomination is like watching a race or a game that feels fixed from the beginning. For all intents and purposes, former President Trump is effectively an incumbent seeking renomination. It is not and has not been an “open” contest with several hopefuls having […] Read more »
Republican voters think Trump is electable. They may be right
… Just seven years ago, both Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton had unfavorable ratings north of 50%. It wasn’t the same majorities that disliked both candidates. Most voters liked at least one of them. But a sizable bloc of the electorate (18%) disliked both candidates, according to the 2016 exit […] Read more »
The chance of Trump winning another term is very real
Donald Trump is facing two indictments, with the potential for more. Political wisdom may have once suggested the former president’s bid for a second White House term would be nothing but a pipe dream. But most of us know better by now. Trump is not only in a historically strong […] Read more »
Why Biden worries about a third-party rival in 2024
… Depending on how you average the polling, Biden is either up or down a point or two against former President Donald Trump (the most likely GOP nominee at this point). This is important because if the polls were pointing to a blowout, it would take a very popular third-party […] Read more »