One year out, the presidential election of 2016 appears wide open. Over the past four election cycles, American voters have yet to render a decisive verdict on partisan control of the federal government. … If Democrats are to retain the presidency in 2016, they will need to successfully transfer the […] Read more »
Five Tables That Explain Rise of Trump and Durability of Anti-Establishment Message
To understand why a majority of GOP voters are currently supporting candidates who espouse a populist-heavy, anti-establishment message, you need to look no further than the data laid out below. This is a GOP electorate that is decidedly pessimistic, suspicious of social/cultural change and resistant to compromise. CONT. Amy Walter, […] Read more »
Can This Really Be Donald Trump’s Republican Party?
… Rather than a European right-wing party, the current contest for the Republican nomination has produced a unique American phenomenon: Donald J. Trump. … The dynamic interaction of three current trends — voter anger over immigration, over offshoring and robotization, and over damage wrought by the economic meltdown of 2008 […] Read more »
Ted Cruz taps into disaffected conservatives’ anger in a bold play that just might work
All year long, smart Republicans have been whispering: Keep a close eye on Ted Cruz. He’s got a message that appeals to the party’s most conservative voters. He’s running a good campaign, well-organized and well-funded. He’s going to be a finalist — and he might just win the nomination. Well, […] Read more »
The Polls May Be Underestimating Trump’s Support
Donald Trump’s persistent lead in the GOP presidential-preference polls has been a great source of confusion for the chattering classes. But Trump is actually just the latest manifestation of a more global trend: Data suggests the appeal of anti-immigrant policies to working-class voters is much deeper than most American elites […] Read more »
Along with Trump’s rhetoric, the stakes for 2016 have risen dramatically
… Nothing in modern politics equates with the kind of rhetoric now coming from Candidate Trump. There are no perfect analogies. One must scroll back decades for echoes, however imperfect, of what he is saying, from the populist and racially based appeals of then-Alabama Gov. George Wallace in 1968 and […] Read more »