… What if Trump’s victory — carrying more than 200 counties where former President Barack Obama had won in 2008 and 2012 — was not primarily driven by his populist economic appeals, but by his rhetoric and policies around race and identity issues instead? Trump’s denunciations of Black Lives Matter, […] Read more »
The Obama-Trump Voters Are Real. Here’s What They Think.
The story of the 2016 presidential election is simple. Donald J. Trump made huge gains among white voters without a college degree. His gains were large enough to cancel out considerable losses among well-educated white voters and a decade of demographic shifts. There are questions and details still up for […] Read more »
Trump’s Cult Overwhelms the GOP
This time, it’s the populists’ turn to make the mistake of predicting Donald Trump’s political demise. After humiliating Attorney General Jeff Sessions for recusing himself from the Russian investigation, Trump is testing the limits of how much chaos Republicans are willing to take. … The political world is going to […] Read more »
Trump and race
Many months after the election of Donald Trump, new data and research findings continue to provide fresh light on that critical historical moment. The main strand of this research is a search to understand who voted for each candidate, and what motivated their vote. The results are not entirely intuitive, […] Read more »
NBC News/WSJ Poll: Voters in Trump Counties Like His Policies, Not His Style
In the places that helped carry President Donald Trump to victory in 2016, there’s plenty that Americans like about his pugnacious policy stances on trade and foreign affairs, but they are far less comfortable with his combative personal style. A new NBC News/ Wall Street Journal poll of 439 key […] Read more »
Trump’s poll numbers are bad. Here’s when the bottom will drop out.
… In the otherwise dismal new Washington Post-ABC poll, Trump’s handling of the economy is the only area in which he is viewed favorably by the public, by a narrow 43 percent to 41 percent. But if Americans were to discover Trump can’t make good on his promise to lead […] Read more »