For as much criticism as pollsters endured in the run-up to Election Day, a look back shows many of them hit very close to the bull’s-eye for the presidential race — but some did better than others. [cont.] Scott Neuman, NPR Read more »
The Presidential Polls Were Right After All — But the Argument Continues
In the end, after all the unskewing, the re-weighting and the hand-wringing, the polls were right — for the most part. … But the election also showed the polling industry is still facing increasing challenges related to how the various polls are conducted. The demographics of the country are changing, […] Read more »
YouGov Poll Performance In The 2012 U.S. Elections
YouGov conducted a three wave “megapoll” during the recent U.S. national elections, providing detailed estimates for the national popular vote and Presidential and Senate races in 27 states (a total of 51 contests). As in the 2008 Presidential and 2010 midterm elections, YouGov hit the national vote split with almost […] Read more »
4 Steps for Improving News Coverage of Election Polls
I am speaking on a panel this morning at the National Press Club. The subject is the election polls. Given the setting, I am going to focus my remarks on how we can improve news coverage of the election polls. [cont.] John Sides, George Washington U. (The Monkey Cage) Read more »
Aggregating the Aggregates
… All told, the forecasts did quite well. But look at what worked better: averaging over the forecasts. This makes good statistical sense: as Alex points out with a fun Netflix example, it makes more sense to keep as much information as possible. In a Bayesian framework, why pick just […] Read more »
US election result a triumph for number nerds
… According to pundits, Mitt Romney and Barack Obama were on a knife’s edge – the race was too close to call, and the election count could take weeks. … Polling data analysts with a background in complex maths, rather than realpolitik, pored over poll after poll, to not only pick […] Read more »