In the past three electoral cycles Nevada has commanded significant national attention due to the state’s status as both a presidential and congressional battleground state. Yet, despite the Silver State’s increased electoral clout, Nevada remains one of the most difficult states to reliably poll; a consideration that is not without […] Read more »
Where Obama and Romney Beat Their Polls
I’m traveling for Thanksgiving, so we’ll keep this relatively brief. But I thought this map was worth sharing. It shows how President Obama and Mitt Romney performed on Election Day relative to the FiveThirtyEight forecasts in each state, based on the ballots counted so far. [cont.] Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight (NYT) Read more »
How the 2012 election polling really was skewed – for Mitt Romney
… The national polls, as it turned out, were not systematically biased against Republican Mitt Romney. The final surveys pointed to President Obama’s re-election, and they were right. That does not mean, however, that the polls weren’t biased. [cont.] Harry Enten, The Guardian Read more »
What Nate Silver really accomplished
… I believe people are seriously misstating what Silver achieved. It isn’t that he predicted the election right where others botched it. It’s that he popularized a way of thinking about polling, a way to navigate through conflicting numbers and speculation, that would still have remained invaluable even if he’d […] Read more »
Nate Silver discusses election polling on MSNBC’s Morning Joe
Nate Silver discusses election polling on MSNBC’s Morning Joe. Visit NBCNews.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy Read more »
What does Google’s election success mean for polling?
Nate Silver was widely acknowledged as the data hero of the US election for his in-depth scrutiny of the Presidential polls. But his final analysis contained a surprise – Google Consumer Surveys was the second most accurate predictor of the election outcome. What does this mean for future election polling? […] Read more »