Many are looking at Scotland’s independence referendum as a referendum on poll accuracy as well. And the general consensus is that polls failed the test. One analyst called it “a loss not only for the pro-independence movement … but also for the pollsters.” A Guardian column blamed “systematic error across […] Read more »
Four Reasons the G.O.P. Isn’t Doing Better in Senate Races
Republicans have taken a clear lead over the last month on the question of whether likely voters favor a Republican-controlled Congress or one dominated by Democrats. Some polls using this generic question show the Republicans ahead by as many as 7 points among likely voters, a tally rivaling the polls […] Read more »
And Then There Were Four: The Senate Field Narrows
With six weeks to go before the midterm elections, the playing field has started to narrow. Increasingly, it appears that control of the Senate will hinge on as few as four key races. Based on the past two Senate elections, polling in September is highly predictive of the final outcome. […] Read more »
The secret truths of election forecasting
In case you missed it, election forecasting can be fractious. There is a “war” among various forecasting models of the Senate elections, we are told. I’m here to tell you: no, there’s not. Or at least, much less of a war than a grabby headline would suggest. And so, in […] Read more »
Why most Americans fear ISIS
Americans across the political spectrum are supporting Obama’s military campaign against ISIS. Brooke talks with Marc Lynch, director of the Institute for Middle East Studies at George Washington University, about this striking unanimity in public opinion, and what’s responsible for it. On The Media Read more »
In Scotland, the polls got it wrong. Or did they?
As the U.S. blogosphere swirls with the arguments about the best ways to go about (or not) predicting election results, Justin Wolfers make a provocative argument today over at The Upshot in the wake of Thursday’s Scottish referendum. Wolfers claims that while the outcome was a “loss” for polling, the […] Read more »