The Beltway hosted a dueling set of Republican conferences this past weekend, which perfectly highlighted the party’s struggles: the Conservative Political Action Conference, taken over by former President Trump; versus Principles First, put on by center-right and never-Trump organizations. Trump triumphantly declared his takeover of the party complete, saying things […] Read more »
This is the dynamic that could decide the 2024 GOP race
The same fundamental dynamic that decided the 2016 Republican presidential primaries is already resurfacing as the 2024 contest takes shape. As in 2016, early polls of next year’s contest show the Republican electorate is again sharply dividing about former President Donald Trump along lines of education. In both state and […] Read more »
Why Trump is a clear favorite for the 2024 GOP nomination
… Trump is a clear, though not prohibitive, favorite to win next year’s Republican nomination for president. Right now, he’s averaging about 44% in the national primary polls. He’s 15 points ahead of DeSantis who is at 29%. A 15-point lead may not seem impressive at this early stage of […] Read more »
Why Red v. Blue Became Me v. You: Polarization, Part II
A political identity–being a liberal or Democrat (a “D”) versus being a conservative or Republican (an “R”)–has become viscerally more important to more Americans, reaching partisan intensities not seen for at least a century and not seen elsewhere in the western world. R’s and D’s have increasingly and heatedly differed […] Read more »
Winning at the Rules Game
… In the gauzy, “West Wing” TV version of politics, campaigns are won with compelling speeches, dazzling debate performances and perfectly crafted campaign ads. In reality, campaigns are won on grit, endurance and attention to detail. And luck. To win the nomination for president, a campaign must be able to […] Read more »
The three Republican factions: Non-cons, normie-cons, and disaffected leaners
The current moment in the Republican Party is summed up well by a quote from Teresa Cosby, a Furman University political science professor, on former governor (and current GOP presidential candidate) Nikki Haley’s role in removing the Confederate flag from South Carolina Capitol grounds: “It’s just going to score her […] Read more »