Donald Trump reshuffled his presidential campaign late Tuesday, appointing two new leaders: Stephen Bannon, the former banker who runs the conservative outlet Breitbart News, and Kellyanne Conway, the veteran Republican pollster Trump initially hired to fix his image with women. … Conway’s campaign ascent has been rapid. She became a […] Read more »
How Obama’s Rising Approval Ratings Compare With Recent Presidents’
President Obama’s job approval ratings have been climbing of late. The president crossed the 50 percent approval threshold back in March for the first time since 2013, and he’s on track to finish his final term with a majority of Americans approving of the job he is doing. It’s only […] Read more »
Polling: Which one should you believe?
… It is unsurprising that poll results can go very wrong in an era when most phone calls are diverted to voice mail, landline usage is on the decline, spam clogs email accounts, and divisive elections split the population into bitterly opposing camps. Human tendencies make polling all the more […] Read more »
Commission on Presidential Debates Announces Polls to be used in 2016 Candidate Selection Criteria
The nonpartisan, nonprofit Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) today announced the polls to be used in applying the Candidate Selection Criteria for the 2016 general election presidential and vice presidential debates. CONT. Commission on Presidential Debates Read more »
Do not confuse voter intention and probability of victory
On Tuesday the Monkey Cage at the Washington Post published an article, “Do betting markets outperform election polls? Hardly.” The article suffers from two common confusions around both prediction markets and forecasting in general. CONT. David Rothschild (Microsoft Research), PredictWise Read more »
Why the USC/L.A. Times tracking poll differs from other surveys
Since July 28, when Hillary Clinton accepted the Democratic nomination, she has gained five points in the USC Dornsife/LA Times Daybreak tracking poll of the election. … Typically, polls ask people which candidate they favor or lean toward. Those who say they don’t know or are undecided don’t get factored […] Read more »