Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are about to face off in one of the most anticipated debates in American political history. … I won’t try and predict who is going to “win” tonight’s debate. But if history is any guide (and it may not be in this crazy election year), […] Read more »
Theories of the Race: How Solid Is Hillary Clinton’s Lead?
Hillary Clinton holds a modest and potentially vulnerable lead over Donald J. Trump heading into the first presidential debate Monday night, with a large number of voters remaining undecided or saying they’ll support a minor-party candidate. It’s not where it seemed the race would stand a month ago, when Mrs. […] Read more »
Where The Race Stands Heading Into The First Debate
Whatever arguments we’ve had about the polls this week will soon be swamped by the reaction to Monday’s presidential debate. As a rough guide, I’d expect us to have some initial sense of how the debate has moved the numbers by Thursday or Friday based on quick-turnaround polls, and a […] Read more »
Poll Aggregation Fight
Last week I got into a little Twitter fight with Nat[e] Silver. I tweeted that I am concerned about the FiveThirtyEight forecast, both how much volatility it has and how predictable the forecast is. … Here is summary of methodological disagreements with Nate Silver (who I find to be a […] Read more »
The Case For And Against Democratic Panic
Last Friday, I wrote an article entitled “Democrats Should Panic … If The Polls Still Look Like This In A Week.” Well, it’s been a week — actually eight days — since that was published. So: Should Democrats panic? The verdict is … I don’t know. CONT. Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight Read more »
50 Days Out: The Questions That Remain
This is it. The final sprint to the November election has begun. But, even with just a couple months to go, there are still some questions yet to be answered that will have a big impact on the final vote. 1. Will the debate matter? CONT. Amy Walter, Cook Political […] Read more »