… While data geeks and traditional journalists each made their share of mistakes when assessing Trump’s chances during the campaign, their behavior since the election has been different. After Trump’s victory, the various academics and journalists who’d built models to estimate the election odds engaged in detailed self-assessments of how […] Read more »
The Great Instigator
Donald Trump always seems most grounded in chaos. He thrives on contradicting his aides, surprising his allies, disparaging his opponents. He revels in the tempest. … But the unprecedented concern about Trump in polling since the election also signals he may be miscalculating how much turmoil most Americans will tolerate […] Read more »
Trump Entering White House Unbent and Unpopular
In one way at least, President-elect Donald J. Trump has already surpassed all of his recent predecessors. It took Barack Obama 18 months in the White House for his approval rating to slip to 44 percent in Gallup polling, and it took George W. Bush 4½ years to fall that […] Read more »
Can You Trust Trump’s Approval Rating Polls?
For perhaps the first time since last November’s election, polls are making headlines again. Surveys from CNN, Gallup, ABC News and The Washington Post, NBC News and the Wall Street Journal and Quinnipiac University all have Donald Trump with net-negative numbers on handling his presidential transition and duties as president-elect. … […] Read more »
Trump decries ‘phony’ polls showing him with low approval ratings
President-elect Donald Trump took to Twitter to try to discredit polls that show him about to enter office with historically low approval ratings, including one published Tuesday by The Washington Post. … The same people who did the phony election polls, and were so wrong, are now doing approval rating […] Read more »
Political Pollsters Reflect On What Went Wrong In 2016
2016 was a year of failure for political polling in several Western democracies. France, Britain and the U.S. were all taken by surprise after polls underestimated the support for conservative presidential candidates and Brexit. Now, pollsters in all three countries are reflecting on what went wrong. All Things Considered, NPR Read more »