Four in 10 Americans approve of how President Joe Biden is running the country, according to the latest PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll conducted in the days before he announced his campaign for reelection. Meanwhile, a majority of Republicans currently say they would vote for Donald Trump, even if he is convicted […] Read more »
Is Biden’s Approval Rating Too Weak for Him to Win?
Key Points• Presidential approval is typically a good predictor of the share of the vote an incumbent president will receive.• Recent presidents often ran a little ahead of their approval as opposed to a little behind, although the sample size is very small.• Assuming President Biden’s approval, which is mired […] Read more »
Why 2024 could be the most boring presidential primary season ever
For people who write about electoral, or “horse race,” politics, few things are more enjoyable than an exciting presidential primary season. Sometimes, both Democrats and Republicans cooperate by holding gripping fights for the party nods (see 2008). Sometimes, however, voters in both parties quickly coalesce around front-runners (see 2000). A […] Read more »
Pew’s methods report and the polling dot-com bubble
This week, Pew Research Center released an analysis of national pollsters and the methods they have used since 2000. I knew this project was in progress because I had confirmed their information for PRRI in my former role as director of research, and I am very happy to see these […] Read more »
If Biden’s so unpopular, why isn’t any Democrat posing a serious challenge?
President Joe Biden was the toast of Ireland last week, as he was treated to a hero’s welcome in a pageant-laden return to his ancestral home. Meanwhile, back in the USA, Biden is saddled with job approval ratings in the low 40s, a traditional warning sign for any incumbent on […] Read more »
Over Before It Began?
Based on the chatter in Washington, the race for the Republican nomination is already over. Former President Donald Trump, who looked vulnerable in the immediate aftermath of the 2022 midterms, has regained his footing in spite of (or thanks to) an indictment and more potential legal fallout in the coming […] Read more »