Can voters tell us whether they’ll turn out?

It’s that point in the cycle when everyone lowers their voice, along with their head, and knowingly suggests, “It’s all about turnout.” Leaving aside the veracity of the statement itself, it certainly puts pressure on pollsters to correctly predict the likely electorate. Many employ straightforward questions to ascertain whether an […] Read more »

Trump’s Approval Rating Is Up. Republican House Chances Are Down. Does That Make Any Sense?

Just in time for the Nov. 6 election, President Trump is posting some of the best job approval numbers of his presidency. His approval rating is currently 43.1 percent, according to the FiveThirtyEight average, the highest it’s been since March 2017. His disapproval rating is 52.0 percent, so let’s not […] Read more »